Otis Top Shot’s Official 2021–22 NBA Season Predictions
Finals predictions, awards predictions, and more!
Well, that was quick.
After another truncated offseason, the NBA is back, y’all! The 2021–22 season kicks off tonight with the Bucks hosting the Nets and the Warriors visiting the Staples Center to take on the Lakers.
This means it’s the perfect time to drop some scalding takes and put my thoughts on the upcoming season to paper.
In this piece, I’m going to try to predict who will make the Playoffs, the Conference Finals, the NBA Finals, and who will be crowned champion late next June.
In addition, I’m going to talk about some under-the-radar teams I’m personally excited to watch, even if they have no realistic shot at a title this year.
And then finally, I’ll get into the awards predictions, making my picks for MVP, DPOY, and ROTY, in addition to mentioning some deep sleeper candidates for each award.
Let’s get right into it.
Eastern Conference Predictions
Playoff Seeding
1 — Atlanta Hawks
2 — Milwaukee Bucks
3 — Miami Heat
4 — Boston Celtics
5 — Brooklyn Nets
6 — Chicago Bulls
7* — Philadelphia 76ers
8* — New York Knicks
9* — Charlotte Hornets
10* — Indiana Pacers
Conference Finals
Milwaukee beats Boston in 6
Non-Playoff Team to Watch
Orlando Magic
Analysis
Let’s start with the elephant in the room. Oops…I think there’s more than one elephant, so let’s just start at the top.
I don’t think the Atlanta Hawks are the best team in the East. But, I feel like they’re well-suited to put together a fantastic regular season, riding high in confidence after putting together such a memorable Playoff run, and competing in an Eastern Conference whose juggernaut is in turmoil. It would have been easy to pick Milwaukee here for the top spot, but there’s bound to be at least one stretch marred by a championship hangover at some point during the year.
Now, the Nets at #5. If I believed in this team’s ability to act as a cohesive unit and stay healthy, they’d be my pick to not just win the title, but to probably go 16–0 in the Playoffs along the way. Problem is, I don’t believe in either of those things. Kyrie, for all the incredible work he does outside of basketball, isn’t living in reality with the rest of us at the moment, and I genuinely do not believe in KD and Harden’s ability to stay healthy (nor Kyrie’s for that matter, if he returns). Things are ugly in Brooklyn already, and I don’t see them getting better in time for them to win it all this year.
As far as the Bucks are concerned, I think they’ll be able to put together another strong run through the Eastern Conference, especially with the Nets and even the 76ers falling apart at the seams. There’ll be some other upstarts for them to deal with, but I think they’ll manage. I kept coming back to the whole idea that it’s so hard to go to back-to-back Finals in sports, but is it really that hard in the NBA? It happens all the time. I feel like this is a cop-out pick, but it’s an honest one.
Quick hits
My Celtics will surprise a lot of people this year. Last year was an absolute mess for a variety of reasons, but I feel like the impacts that COVID and injuries had on the roster are being underplayed. This is a really good team.
The 76ers are a freaking mess. Ben Simmons is acting like a clown at this point, and it’s only a matter of time before that issue reaches another boiling point. We all know that the inevitable outcome is a trade, but with Simmons intent on nuking his trade value, it remains to be seen what kind of return Philly will get.
The Orlando Magic should be a super fun team to watch! Maybe I’m biased as a Jalen Suggs superfan, but I’m really excited to see their young squad come together, especially with Fultz and Isaac returning from severe knee injuries.
The Miami Heat are my sleeper pick for Conference champions. Lowry and Butler could lead that team through a brick wall. They scare the hell out of me as a Celtics fan.
Western Conference Predictions
Playoff Seeding
1 — Phoenix Suns
2 — Dallas Mavericks
3 — Utah Jazz
4 — Los Angeles Lakers
5 — Golden State Warriors
6 — Memphis Grizzlies
7* —Denver Nuggets
8* — Portland Trail Blazers
9* — Los Angeles Clippers
10* — New Orleans Pelicans
Conference Finals
Utah beats LA Lakers in 7
Non-Playoff Team to Watch
Oklahoma City Thunder
Analysis
Let’s start at the top again.
The Phoenix Suns are entering the season with some mild controversy surrounding DeAndre Ayton’s contract situation, but other than that they’re locked, loaded, and ready to go. I think last season’s Finals loss will only further motivate CP3 to push this team to new heights from start to finish, though I expect them to eventually fall to the Lakers when they meet in Round 2. It wouldn’t shock me at all for them to make another run to the Finals, though.
Speaking of the Lakers, the addition of Russell Westbrook makes for one of the most intriguing on-court storylines of the upcoming season, and while I think that it’ll take a while for their three stars to settle in with each other, I do expect them to figure it out eventually. LeBron James is a basketball genius, and betting against him is just stupid at this point. The only thing that may get in their way is health and Father Time himself.
Now, I don’t think the Dallas Mavericks are a very good basketball team, but I do think that this is the year that Luka makes a legitimate run at the “best basketball player in the world” throne, and that alone is enough to get them the #2 seed in what should be a bloodbath of a season in the Western Conference. Kristaps Porzingis is a thousand times better than everyone seems to want to give him credit for, too. Last year was his best year in the NBA if you look at his numbers more deeply, as he put up a higher Win Share per 48 than both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The biggest issue with KP is staying on the court, but talks of his demise since leaving New York aren’t just overblown, they’re flat-out factually incorrect.
My pick to make it to the NBA Finals out of the West is the Utah Jazz, though. I think this is a team that’s built perfectly for the rigors of the postseason, assuming they are all healthy, of course. Donovan Mitchell is a cold-blooded assassin in big games, and they have the kind of squad that can grind it out better than almost anyone else in the modern-day. It’s a bold pick despite the fact that they were the #1 seed last year, but it’s the only choice that felt right to me going into the new season.
Quick Hits
The return of Klay Thompson, when it does happen, should give a much-needed boost to the Warriors, but until I see him dropping bombs from deep on the regular again, I can’t rank them much higher than the #5 seed. This team is a bit of a wildcard, for sure.
Anyone who watched the Grizzlies in the Playoffs last year will tell you that they have a scary high ceiling. I think they’re a year away from being true competitors at the top of the West, but I’ll be shocked if they don’t turn some heads this year. Ja Morant will be an All-Star. Write it in stone. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a Most Improved Player candidate as well.
The Nuggets will get Jamal Murray back at some point, but they fall victim to a very deep Western Conference here. I like this team a lot, and Jokic is incredible, but I’m just not feeling it this year.
I think this is the last dance for Dame in Portland, as sad as that makes me. The Blazers had an awful offseason if you consider what they needed to do to try to build a true title contender to keep Lillard, and I think we’re going to see things get ugly there unless an amicable, mutual decision can be made with Dame to hit the reset button and send him to a contender next offseason.
This Conference is ridiculously deep. The Pelicans, Kings, Clippers (sans Kawhi), Spurs, and Timberwolves all could battle for the last two play-in spots. Should be a lot of fun!
The OKC Thunder are going to be awful in all likelihood, but I love this team. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the most exciting and underrated young players in the league, Aleksej Pokusevski is much worse but way more fun Porzingis, Josh Giddey is an Australian basketball wizard, etc etc etc. They won’t win a lot of games, but they’re going to be fun as hell to watch.
NBA Finals
Bucks beat Jazz in 6
I can’t pick anyone else in good conscience. The Bucks scream repeat to me on so many levels. The only thing that could derail them is a fully healthy, fully vaccinated Nets squad, but I think the odds of that happening are lower than Kyrie sailing off the edge of our Flat Earth.
Finals MVP — Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis will begin cementing his legacy as a top-tier player all-time and get the GOAT rumblings started. This dude is beyond special. Sit back and watch the show.
Awards
MVP — Luka Doncic
This was probably easy to guess based on where I slotted the Mavs, but just to reiterate it again, I really think we’ll see another level to Luka’s game this season. If he can average something like 30/9/9 while leading the Mavs to 50+ wins, I don’t see how you can give this award to anyone else.
My sleeper pick here is…Jayson Tatum. Shocker, I know, but the dude is so special. We all saw what he was able to do to the Nets in one Playoff game last year almost singlehandedly, we all saw the 60-piece and multiple other 50-pieces down the stretch, we all saw the way he was able to add a new level to his game after fully recovering from COVID. I don’t think it’s a matter of if, but rather a matter of when Tatum wins this award. I’m just not sure it’s this year.
DPOY — Giannis Antetokounmpo
Now that the voter fatigue has worn off and Giannis has added a ring to his resume, order will be restored to the universe and the best defensive player in the league will once again be given proper credit for his efforts.
My sleeper pick here is…Jrue Holiday. It may seem kind of weird to go with Giannis’ teammate here, but I feel like Jrue is finally getting the mainstream recognition he deserves on this end of the floor, and if he has a few big-time defensive stops akin to The Strip™ in the NBA Finals last year that become viral highlights (and Top Shot Moments), I could see this happening.
ROTY — Jalen Suggs
There are really three favorites here for me: Suggs, Cade Cunningham, and Jalen Green. Cunningham and Green will certainly get more offensive volume than Suggs will, which may hurt his case, but I expect him to be far more efficient and have fewer bumps in the road this season for the Magic. I loved Suggs at Gonzaga and thought he deserved consideration with the top pick (I would’ve taken Cunningham, but it was close for me). I expect him to have a hell of a season for Orlando.
My sleeper pick here is…Josh Giddey. I love a lot of rookies in this class, and could’ve easily gone with any of a few other guys, but Giddey ticks a lot of boxes for me — clear path to lots of playing time and high offensive volume, extremely skilled with the ball, has a star teammate to help guide him along — and I think he’s going to have a much stronger season than many expect. He’s a unique and special talent that will be very fascinating to watch.
Final Thoughts
After a steady diet of inevitable Cavs vs Warriors matchups in the Finals, the last couple of years have finally served up some real unpredictability in the NBA, and I feel like this year may be the hardest to predict in quite some time. Maybe we’ll all look back on this statement and laugh when the Lakers topple the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals, only to get trounced by the Nets in 5, but I really do expect chaos this year.
No matter what happens though, it’s going to be a lot of fun, and NBA Top Shot is going to be there to document the whole thing for us. The 75th NBA season is officially upon us, everyone. Enjoy every second.
