Five Potentially Controversial Takes From the First Quarter of the NBA Season
Only time will tell if these takes are flaming hot or as cold as ice.
Though it feels like it just began yesterday, the 2021–22 NBA season is somehow already about 25% finished, with the league’s 30 teams having all played about 20 games or so thus far.
While there is certainly a ton of basketball left to be played, the 20-game mark is where the standings begin to start rounding into form, with true contenders starting to make their marks at the top of their respective conferences, pretenders starting to drift away from the lead, and basement-dwellers beginning to count their lottery tickets for next year’s draft.
It’s also the point where pre-season predictions begin to make those brave enough to publish them look like geniuses or absolute fools. I’ll link mine below and let you decide what you think my fate will be; I admittedly do sincerely regret believing in the old men out in LA already, as you’ll see below.
The point I’m trying to make here is that, while the regular season won’t wrap up for another four months or so, it’s definitely not too soon to try to draw some conclusions about what we’ve seen so far. So, here are five takes I’m willing to throw out into the universe as we get ready to enter the final calendar month of 2021.
May history judge me for these justly and fairly, regardless of how right or wrong I may wind up being.
1) The Eastern Conference has no favorite.
Now, maybe one will emerge over the coming months, but at the moment, no one team has separated themselves from the pack enough to where I’m confident calling them the favorite.
I’m not just talking about the record here, either. I’m talking about consistency when it comes to having a high level of play against all opponents, and looking like they have the desire to blow the doors off of whoever steps out on the court in opposition to them. I’m just not seeing it.
The Nets look like they could easily become that team, but uncertainty about Kyrie’s long-term status — both on the court and as a distraction — as well as about KD’s long-term ability to stay healthy, make them difficult to bet on for me. Milwaukee certainly could repeat, but inconsistency due to early season injury and COVID issues have made them tough to judge to this point. Miami has looked like title contenders and like play-in candidates on consecutive nights more than once already this year. Same inconsistency issues apply to the Bulls.
Let’s revisit this in another 6–8 weeks, but right now the East looks simultaneously deeper and more confusing than it ever has.
2) The Western Conference will not be a two-team race, despite the hot starts from Phoenix and Golden State.
I picked the Suns to have the best record in the West before the season started, and they’ve done nothing but rattle off 16 straight after a shaky start to make me look like some kind of clairvoyant basketball wizard. The Warriors, as well, look absolutely unbeatable at the moment, and that’s even before they get Klay Thompson back in the fold.
But here’s the thing about peaking in November: it doesn’t mean a damn thing.
Both of these teams are really good. Either one of them may end up representing the Western Conference in the Finals this year. But, I’m also not willing to count out the possibility that the Jazz, Clippers (if Kawhi gets back in time), Mavs, or even a young sleeper like the Grizzlies or Timberwolves, could get hot and crash the party before it’s all said and done.
3) Russell Westbrook will not finish the year out in LA. But, if he does, the Lakers won’t get out of the First Round, if they even make it that far.
I knew the Lakers would struggle, even though I chose them to make it to the Western Conference Finals and take the Jazz to 7 games before ultimately falling. I just didn’t expect them to look so dysfunctional and old while they did so.
Maybe I’m being a prisoner of the moment here. LeBron still looks amazing at times, AD has been a monster on occasion, and even Russ has had his moments.
But that’s just the thing. It’s not all the time. I know AD and Russ aren’t ancient, but AD’s always had health issues, and Father Time does seem to be catching up with LeBron a bit. I think even two or three years ago, they could have overcome the really awkward basketball fit between the three of them, but I’m not seeing it anymore. Russ will either get traded, or this team will fall early.
4) The 2021 NBA Draft will go down as the best since 2003.
Usually, even in a really hyped up draft, someone goes bust. There was Darko Milicic in 2003, and Marvin Bagley III in 2018 — though he’s looked solid the last couple games, and could be in for a career-saving resurrection. It’s just so hard to have every prospect hit on their potential when so much goes into becoming a star beyond sheer talent and ability. Even the most talented young players can have their careers derailed by factors both within and outside of their control.
Now, I’m not saying we’ll get a bunch of Hall of Famers from this draft…but actually, that’s exactly what I’m saying.
From the top five picks, it looks like Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes are even better than advertised, and very well could develop into franchise cornerstones. Top overall pick Cade Cunningham is starting to find his groove despite an injured start to his season. The two Jalens, Green and Suggs, have both been plagued by inefficiency, but Green has all the moxie of a future scoring champ, and Suggs checks off way too many boxes to write him off after just 20 games (and has had some brilliant flashes recently).
Beyond the top five, Josh Giddey looks like a perfect pairing with SGA in OKC’s long-term plans in the backcourt, Davion Mitchell has made reservations in Lockdown Hell for everyone unlucky enough to matched up with him one-on-one for the next decade, and Alperen Sengun looks like the steal of the draft at pick #16 (who would’ve thought that the dude who won the Turkish League MVP at 18 years-old could ball?).
Surely there will be even more guys who establish themselves as studs as time goes on, too. This draft class is scary good, and looks set to take over the NBA for the next decade-plus.
5) Giannis is the best basketball player in the world, and it isn’t particularly close.
I don’t care what any of you say about LeBron James, Kevin Durant, or Stephen Curry. I really don’t.
LeBron had his run. He’s the greatest player of this generation, arguably the greatest ever, and an incredible ambassador for the sport both on and off the court. But, he’s getting older, and it is finally starting to show.
KD is the most gifted scorer and probably the best hooper the game has ever seen. The dude is a cheat code. I think if he’d stayed in OKC and hadn’t gotten injured, people would view him unquestionably as a top five player all time, even if he’d never won a ring. But, he doesn’t impact the game on both ends of the floor the same way Giannis does, especially not at 33 years-old.
Curry is the greatest shooter to ever live, and one of the most creative dribblers and finishers as well. He’s simply unbelievable on the offensive end. But, he’s also 6'2", and is far from being an elite defender, even if he isn’t a bad one. Basketball is a sport of both offense and defense, and even though he and Durant are in their own class offensively, his defense detracts from his overall impact.
Giannis, on the other hand, is the total package. All he’s lacking is a consistent three-point shot, but even without that, he impacts every area of the game in a way that no one else can even come close to at this point, and only LeBron ever did out of today’s active players. He’s far and away the best defensive player in the league; get Gobert and his immobile, paint-parked ass the hell out of here. He’s also an elite rebounder, an incredibly efficient playmaker for a guy his size with such a high usage rate, and the best low-post scorer we’ve seen in years.
LeBron at his peak was better than Giannis is now, but that’s the only company I’m willing to grant with the Greek Freak at this point, and with Giannis being just 26 years-old, I’m not sure that statement will ring true forever.
